% Based Defense

The NBA has some extremely talented scorers and great offense is going to score on great defense.  A popular saying right now seems to be "good D, better O."  There's several reason why you don't see shutouts in basketball, but the biggest reason is probably individual offensive skill levels are so high its impossible to get defensive stops 100% of the time.  So what should defenses do?  My answer is guard what is most likely to happen or take away their favorite/best moves/plays.  Will taking away all left handed drives from a player who is left hand dominate keep them from scoring?  No, but it can limit their effectiveness.

Watching the Knicks and Mavericks game last night had me frustrated with some of the defensive decisions in late clock situations.  1st scenario Carmelo (one of the most prolific scorers in the game) has the ball one on one from the wing with about 3 seconds left.  Is Melo capable of driving all the way to the rim and scoring with 3 seconds? Absolutely, but what is most likely to happen?  My first thought was one dribble pull up or step back jumper.  I would have liked to see his defender crowd his shot pocket and play the pull up even if it means they are out of position to guard his drive.

Next scenario is end of game and Dirk has the ball in the middle of the floor inside the arc with about 3 seconds left.  Dirk is about 13th on the NBA's all time scoring list and you don't get there by only having one go to move, but what is most likely to happen in that scenario?  My thought Dirk tries to elevate without dribbling to shoot over his defender or he takes one dribble and spins into a fade away if the defender takes away his catch and shoot.  Dirk's defender was active, in a stance, giving lots of energy and ball pressure, but he's giving up 3+ inches to Dirk.  Dirk is capable of shot faking and driving in that scenario, but its not the most likely decision he will make with the game on the line.  I would have liked to see Dirk's defender get a hand up in his face as soon as he moves the ball into his shot pocket.  Active hands that stay around a 7ft shooters waste is not really going to bother his shot. 

Understand you can't take away everything and playing great players the exact same way every time is not a great recipe for success either, but play the %'s and guard what is most likely to occur or get you beat first.