Value of Guards

 College Basketball has reminded us this season just how critical guard play is in the NCAA tournament.  The two remaining teams (Louisville and Michigan) have arguably the best guard tandems in the game this season so its no surprise they will meet for the national championship tonight. 

Siva and Russ Smith for Louisville are relentless game changers.  They are constantly in attack mode and defensively can disrupt a game plan by their individual ball pressure alone.  They are the 2 quickest players with the ball in their hands I have this season making them dynamite in transition and getting downhill off ball screens to live in the paint.

Trey Burke and Hardaway Jr consistently make one big shot after the next. They are big guards with NBA ready bodies and games.  They are the biggest reason Michigan has an insanely low turnover rate for the pace of play they like to employ. 

Louisville relies so much on their defense to get deflections and steals to get out in transition.  I would be surprised if Burke and Hardaway make poor decisions with the basketball in the face of Louisville's pressure.  Michigan has already seen VCU and their intense pressure and handled it quite well.  I don't see Michigan's bigs making bad decisions from the high post vs. Louisville's 2-3 zone either after how well they played from the area against Syracuse.  However, I do think Louisville will spread out when the ball does get in the high post and force Michigan to make the free throw line jumper instead of the correct pass. 

As always though with teams this good the game can be simplified to a make or miss game.  Michigan is going to force Siva and Smith to make outside shots.  Louisville is going to spread out to challenge the arc leaving Dieng to protect the basket and anyone who wants a midrange jumper will have space for a clean look. 

I can't wait to see who steps up and makes big shots for their team tonight.